Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Perhaps my Chan Gailey record against the spread is useless.....


No one mentioned the general point that I wanted to get across. The sportsbooks think this is a tighter game than the GT fans do.

Bryan and anonymous have it right in their comments. If the sportsbooks see an opportunity to make more than their 10% vig based on something they know, they'll play with a line to get more action one way, especially early in the week. No way 50% of money in Vegas is going with the Jackets at +3-1/2 or +4.
I think Vegas is looking at three things:
1. UGA's poor performance on the road against Alabama, Tennessee and Vandy.
2. GT 13 Clemson 3. Clemson and UGA both live off of the run to set up the pass. Clemson had no running game and Cullen Harper got killed. UGA has not faced a run defense like GT all year. In 9 BCS games GT has allowed 782 yards on 330 attempts for an average of 2.37 ypc. This a full yard better than anybody they've played. UGA has three freshman offensive lineman that have never seen Jon Tenuta blitz packages. If GT makes UGA one dimensional with three freshman offensive lineman, they won't break 14 points (barring no turnovers).
3. Durant Brooks. If the game goes to form, Brooks is a big advantage.