Monday, November 19, 2007

Las Vegas

by Lennie Mac
Take you back a year ago, a 9-2 GT football team was a 3 point road underdog versus a 7-4 UGA team that appeared to be in rebuilding mode. We were scratching our heads about the line. Four hours later, UGA 15 GT 12.

The opening line just came out on this week's game versus UGA. Georgia is a 3-1/2 point favorite. That's right 3-1/2 points. The way GT fans and alums have been talking, I would expect that they'll all take a charter flight to Las Vegas and bet every penny they possess on the Dawgs, its such a sure thing. I don't know if you know this, but the Vegas oddsmakers know more about football than you and I put together. That's why they have those cool hotels. Why would they make this line so small?

1. The sportsbooks want everybody to bet on UGA.

2. The sportsbooks think GT is going to win.

Why do you think that is? Let's take a look:

1. UGA has been horrible on the road, a sign of a young and immature team. UGA has played only three games in hostile territory. They are 2-1 and could easily be 0-3. Florida was a neutral site game. It's not like Vandy, Tennessee and Alabama is murderer's row.

2. Say what you will about Chan Gailey, but his teams play pretty well as underdogs in big games. Take a look at his record:

vs. Top 10 teams thru 2007 Against the spread 5-4

vs. Top 25 teams thru 2007 Against the spread 12-11

As a home underdog thru 2007 Against the spread 5-5

I'll try to come up with more explanations regarding this line as the week goes on. I believe that GT has a good chance to win, but I'm biased. Vegas has no such bias and obviously they think GT has an excellent chance.