Bowl Situation

Thought I would start a post on the bowl situation as we approach the end of the year. First, let's take a look at the ACC bowl tie-ins and where things likely stand.

Right now there are 5 bowl eligible ACC teams:
Virginia Tech, FSU, Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech.

The ACC could theoretically end up with 3 more bowl eligible teams, for a total of 8. Only one out of Maryland / Wake Forest could make it since they play one another and both have to win their final games. Here's how the remaining teams can become bowl eligible:

1 win....Clemson (by beating S.Carolina)
1 win....North Carolina (by beating Duke)
2 wins...Maryland (by beating VaTech and Wake Forest)
2 wins...Wake Forest (by beating Miami and Maryland)

So the only 2 ACC teams completely shut out of the bowl picture right now are NCST and Duke.

The ACC has 6 official bowl tie-ins:

BCS = Bowl Championship Series
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville FL)
Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA)
Champ Sports Bowl (Orlando FL)
Continental Tire Bowl (Charlotte NC)
MPS Computers Bowl (Boise Idaho - Blue Turf)

Should the ACC end up with more than 6 bowl eligible teams, we will still likely send them to bowls because other conferences are not able to fill their alloted bowl slots. Currently the PAC 10 could have up to 3 open bowls and the SEC could have one.

Here is a matrix with a the current ACC standings, remaining games, and the bowls each team is still in contention for in my opinion looking at all possible scenarios:



You will notice that GT has the largest number of potential bowls and therefore the most confusing situation. This is because the Tire Bowl just came out and said that GT will not be considered for their "prestigous" event - that they want to go ahead and pick a team after this weekend and not wait. They would rather have Clemson or North Carolina, but both these teams still need one victory to become bowl eligible. In other words we either win out and jump to the top of the bowl picture or we end up fighting for the leftovers. The only way we go to the Tire Bowl is if Clemson AND UNC lose this weekend. Personally I would have loved to go to Charlotte, but how can I put this in a politically correct way - SCREW'EM!!!

For Georgia Tech, here are the likely bowl scenario's based on how we finish the season:

Finish 2-0
Peach or Champ Sports

This all depends on how UVA, Miami, VT finish. But beating UVA assures us of a tie with UVA for 4th at minimum with the tiebreaker on our side. So how important is this game??? Beating Georgia really helps our case for a the Peach Bowl, although I think the odds are slim that they want us being the hometown team.

Finish 1-1 (beat UVA),
Champ Sports, Tire

We would still be in the same scenario as above. However, our overall record would be one less win than UVA and I think they are going to be a more attractive choice for the Peach Bowl. I think beating UVA would put us as a front runner for the Champ Sports Bowl. The Tire Bowl would only be a possibility if both UNC and Clemson lose this weekend.

Finish 1-1 (lose to UVA), UNC/Clemson win & are eligible
Las Vegas, Houston, Emerald, Silicon Valley.

Bottom line is that if UNC / Clemson are eligible the #5 & #6 bowl tie-ins (MPS, Tire) would rather have them than GT. So it would likely leave GT to one of the unfilled bowl slots mentioned.

Finish 1-1 (lose to UVA), UNC/Clemson both lose & not eligible
Tire Bowl, MPC

Well, the Tire Bowl won't have much choice at that point. And the MPC might not even have a team from the ACC to fill it.

Finish 1-1 (lose to UVA), only one of UNC/Clemson wins & eligible
MPC

If only one of UNC / Clemson win, then we are headed to the blue turf in Idaho the way I see.

Finish 0-2
Tire, MPC, Las Vegas, Emerald, Silicone Valley

If we finish this way it will be "we'll take what we can get" time. Our bowl fate will rest completely on what UNC and Clemson do this weekend.

One thing I ignored in this analysis was the fact either Maryland or Wake Forest are technically still capable of reaching bowl eligibility. But I think Wake is toast against Miami. Maryland is capable of beating VaTech and Wake Forest, but if they do I think they get one of the PAC 10 leftovers.

So are you confused yet???

Now, let's look at each bowl in more detail:

BCS BOWL

Nokia Sugar Bowl......J3 8:00pm....Louisiana Superdome New Orleans, LA ABC
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl..J1 8:30pm....Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, AZ ........ABC
Rose Bowl............ J1 5:00pm....Rose Bowl Pasadena, CA..............ABC
FedEx Orange Bowl.....J4 8:30pm....Pro Player Stadium Miami, FL........ABC

Nokia Sugar, Tostitos Fiesta, Rose, Fedex Orange
The ACC champion is guaranteed to go to the Bowl Championship Series (BCS).

If the ACC Champion is #1 or #2 in final BCS Standings, then it goes to the FedEx Orange Bowl in Miami, Fla., on Jan. 4, 2004 to play in the National Championship Game. If not #1 or #2, then the ACC Champion is likely to be chosen either by the Nokia Sugar Bowl Bowl (Jan. 3, 8 p.m.) or the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m.). It could also be chosen by the Rose Bowl(Jan. 1, 5 p.m.), should that bowl lose either the PAC 10 or Big 10 as its host teams.

TEAMS IN THE MIX:: VT, FSU, Miami or Virginia

PICK: MIAMI

TOYOTA GATOR BOWL

Toyota Gator Bowl........Jan. 1 12:30 p.m.....Alltell Stadium Jacksonville, FL NBC

TEAMS IN THE MIX: FSU, MIAMI, VT, VIRGINIA

PICK: FSU

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl...D31 7:30 p.m...Georgia Dome Atlanta, GA ESPN

TEAMS IN THE MIX: FSU, MIAMI, VT, VIRGINIA

PICK: Virginia Tech

CHAMP SPORTS BOWL

Champs Sports Bowl...D21 7:30 p.m. Citrus Bowl Orlando, FL ESPN

TEAMS IN THE MIX: MIAMI, VT, VIRGINIA, GT, UNC

PICK: Georgia Tech

CONTINENTAL TIRE BOWL

Continental Tire Bowl Dec. 30 1:00 p.m. Ericsson Stadium Charlotte, NC ESPN2

TEAMS IN THE MIX: VIRGINIA, GT, UNC

PICK: Virginia (for the 3rd year)

MPC COMPUTERS BOWL

MPC Computers Bowl Dec. 27 2:00 p.m. Bronco Stadium Boise, ID ESPN

TEAMS IN THE MIX: GT, UNC, Clemson

PICK: North Carolina