GT / Clemson Preview

Well, I've provided links to everyone else's thoughts all week. Here's my take

CLEMSON OVERVIEW - "RAGS TO RICHES"
Possibly not a better description for the Clemson Tigers in 2003. Tommy Bowden, within one game of losing his job, now sits with a muti-year deal through 2010. All in the span of 4 games. It all started with a convincing upset over FSU, the first time ever for the younger Bowden, then successive victories over Duke, rival S.Carolina (a thrashing) and Tennessee in the Peach Bowl.

So now Clemson and Tommy Bowden are married, for better or worse. And the fan expectations are higher than ever, with a 5 game winning streak and a top 20 ranking. Harkening back to the 1981 season under Danny Ford is a common occurance.

One interesting fact is that Clemson made major changes to the coaching staff in the off-season, playing musical chairs with just about every coach. Mike O'Cain, a former head coach at NC ST, was named Offensive Coordinator and Brad Scott (one time hc at SC) was named "assistant head coach". Some say that is was actually O'Cain calling the plays earlier in the season which started their 4-game winning streak.

Now, O'Cain is a QB guy. This is a guy that was involved in recruiting Charlie Whitehurst to Clemson, Philip Rivers to NC ST and Darien Durant to UNC. So he knows talent and he knows QB's. O'Cain is also a guy willing to let Whitehurst lose with his arm as opposed to B.Scott who wanted to establish the power running game.

QUARTERBACK
Call him overrated or overhyped if you want, but the kid can throw and he is a nice QB. He is a playmaker. So he will either make long passes and if we don't give him those, he will start making the underneath routes. This of course the strategy Tenuta will try to accomplish and rely on tackling ability to prevent YAC (yards after the catch).

Now, CW's weakness is that he is really a pocket passer and needs time to throw the ball. That is where we have to attack and that is why it is SO disappointing that Eric Henderson will probably not play. We HAVE to pressure this kid or he WILL pick us apart, no matter how good our secondary plays.

Against WF, CW had an average night, 20-41, 288 yards, but he did throw 2 INT's.

RUNNING BACK
Well, Clemson lost their #1 guy Duane Coleman. There are the old internet rumors he might play, but I give it about a 1% chance with a foot injury. Yusef Kelly is an experienced senior and a tough guy to tackle but he is not fast. He had an ok game against WF last week (19-57), but nothing special. He does not have breakaway speed. The combination of a slow RB and a weakened D-Line makes for a weak ground game.

There are a couple of back-up RB's who could see action this week, like Reggie Merriweather, who was upset last week at not getting a snap. I bet he gets a few this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Popular thinking is that Clemson is depleted at the WR position after losing Derrick Hamilton and K.Youngblood. AND THEY ARE!!! So get over it Clemson fans. HOWEVER, Clemson has at least 2 go-to guys, Airese Curry and Chauncey Stuckey, both of whom caught passes for over 100 yards last week against WF. Stuckey was a one-man-show last week, blocking, blocking punts, catching passes, and more. He is a converted QB. If we can keep these two guys blanketed, we should be in good shape. However, should Clemson have a hard time getting the ball into Stuckey's hands, don't be surprised to see him line-up at QB, RB or go in motion for some trick plays, reverses, etc. He's the type of guy you want with the ball in the open field.

OFFENSIVE LINE
Not a big strength for the Tigers, but ok. They lost both starting tackles, which could mean a breakdown in protection against GT. The line also did not prove too effective at supporting the running game against WF, with holes collapsing before the the RB could get through. The other three O-Line spots all have returning starters and are solid. But GT and Tenuta should be able to develop some schemes to keep the pressure on Whitehurst and flush him out of the pocket. At least I hope so.

SPECIAL TEAMS / KICKING
Kicking is another area of concern for the Tigers. Junior Steve Furr did hit a couple of FG's against WF, but experience is an issue...... On special teams watch out for Justin Miller. He returned a punt 69 yards for a TD in Q1 against WF.

DEFENSE
The defense lost 4 starters and they gave up over 250 yards rushing last week and over 400 total yards of offense. Can they hold PJ Daniels under 100 yards like they did in 2003? Hard to judge because WF has such crazy running schemes and always seem to have the Tiger's number. In 2003 Clemson was 4th best at stopping the run in the ACC at 131.8 yards/game. Bottom-line is that the D-Line is the weakest part of the D.

Clearly the defensive strength is in the secondary with all starters returning, and good ones at that with Justin Miller, Tye Hill, Jamaal Fudge and Travis Pugh. They will be tough to throw on. Yes Reggie Ball had a decent throwing game last week. But if you watch the replay of the game, there were a number of passes that were just oh so close to being deflected. This week passes like that WILL get deflected, or picked off - period. So Reggie has to be sharp with the passes and WR's need to be crisp in their routes.

The Tigers do sport an All-ACC candidate at Linebacker with Leroy Hill who had a phenomenal breakout season in 2003. He went from 2 tackles-for-a-loss over 2 years to 27 last season, 2nd in the nation. He was criticized in the spring for lackluster effort, but the games are for real now. Against WF he had 9 tackles, including 2 for-a-loss, 1 sack and 3 QB pressures. Reggie needs to know where he is on the field.

CONCLUSION
For GT to win, I think there are 3 keys:

1. Turnovers.
Do you know what GT's record was last year when we won the turnover battle? Let's look:
+ TO's......4-0
- TO's......1-5
even........2-1

The bottom line is that this is the one statistic that consistently determines winners and losers in college football. Turnovers are momentum killers, they are automatic field position, they are easy points. They change the complexion of the game.

So if GT turns the ball over, you should absolutely be cringing!!!

2. Time-of-Possesion
We need to win this battle. Last year's game was an anamoly. GT actually won the TOP battle last year during our thrashing. However, we still have to win this game by controlling the ball and not giving Whitehurst too many opportunities to throw.

What this also means is that we have to keep the score low. I do not think GT is a team that can keep up with Clemson if this becomes a high-scoring battle. But I don't think Clemson can win if they don't score more than 20 points.

3. Pressure the QB.
This game is likely to won / lost at the line. Can GT pressure Whitehurst? Can the O-Line of Clemson give CW enough time to pick apart the GT secondary? Will Reggie Ball get enough time to read the Clemson coverage and make good decisions throwing the ball? Will the banged up GT O-Line create gaps for PJ Daniels to average more than 5 yards/carry.

The media will be focused on the passing game and the fancy moves of Stuckey, but this game will be won in the trenches.

PREDICTIONS
Well, I predict a relatively low-scoring affair, because that's what I think it will take for GT to win.

FINAL SCORE, GT 24, Clemson 21.
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Other Blog regulars and their predictions:

K-Dogg.......GT 31, CU 24
Buzz..........GT 34, CU 31 (PJ 153 yards)
Bryan........GT 23, CU 10
Justin.......GT 24, CU 17

If I see some other ones before the game, I'll update this post.