Thursday, May 06, 2004

My Opinion where Morris will end up

After thinking through all the facts and non-facts here is my prediction........... R.Morris tonight announces that he will enter his name into the NBA draft, not retain an agent, and reserve his right to return to school prior to the June 17 deadline to take his name off the draft-board.

He and his family have waited so long to make a decision that I think they will continue to string this out to get a better feel for draft position. By declaring for the draft, Morris will be able to participate in the all-important Chicago pre-draft camp - and he will get a much better feel for where he might go. He will still be able to head to a school if things don't work out. He would not close any doors by making the decision this way.

Here are some facts:

- he can still go to college by declaring for the draft if he removes his name by June 17
- Reports are that neither coaching staff has been contacted or notified by RM of a decision
- His "press conference" is a private dinner party, and evidently it is not clear if any media outlets have been officially invited.
- While his father said "no NBA" awhile ago, all has been quiet on the subject the last month.
- His AAU teammates have already declared (D.Howard, Josh Smith).
- A guy 11 inches shorter than him has declared out of high school (Telfair)
- The NBA drafts on potential, not current ability, and RM has tons of potential
- How can you say college is super-important NOW in his life when he will probably not go there for more than 2 years. Important - yes....... important now - not so much.

As far as which school he would end up at if this didn't happen - don't have a clue - although I really believe GT is a slight favorite. Did you know that it appears (not confirmed) that Morris's family never even visited the UK campus?

So, here are my odds:

35%.......NBA - not retain an agent, GT as back-up
30%.......NBA - not retain an agent, UK as back-up
20%.......GT all the way, no NBA
15%.......UK all the way, no NBA

In other words, I am guessing a 65% that he heads to the NBA with an option to pull his name out. Of course all this is pure speculation. I hope I am wrong and hope that GT is the answer "all the way".