Monday, December 08, 2003

Is the BCS a crock????

While this year will be a truly strange one with plenty unsatisfied fans, I tend to think the BCS probably got the right teams. First, we have to stop saying the BCS is generated by a computer. A computer didn't decide this. Think about it. The logic used by the computer was determined by human minds. It just happens that the BCS calculation combines a number of different human minds and a number of different ways of judging teams, including statistical comparisons. But once again, human minds developed the statistical algorithm.

So how do we judge who should play for the NC? When you think about the 3 teams, they all have one loss. That is where we can separate who should play for the NC. Who did they lose to:

- USC lost to Cal 34-31, who finished 7-6
- LSU lost to Florida 19-7, who finished 8-4, and is #17 in the nation
- Oklahoma lost to Kansas St 35-7, who finished 11-3, and is #10 in the nation

Who had the toughest schedule? Here are the Sagarin Rankings
- Oklahoma #27
- USC #33
- LSU #42

Not a dramatic difference, at least not enough in my opinion to separate these three teams from one another. However, USC didn't take care of business against one of their lesser opponents. That hurt them the most. The only other thing that might have changed the BCS outcome is if they had taken into consideration margin of victory. If Okl had only just lost to K-State, that would make it easier. But they actually got spanked, lending less credibility to my arguement. But alas, there is no margin of victory in the BCS calculation. More decisions where humans developed to algorithm.

Now, why is USC #1 right now in the "human" polls? One reason - their loss was earlier in the season and Okl's loss was last week. The way the "human" polls work is that when you lose you drop in the polls and the teams behind you move up. Nevermind that you have the same number of losses. It doesn't matter. Lose late and you drop, period.

So, I actually only have a minor issue with the fact that USC is #1 in the human polls. They shouldn't be in my opinion, #2 at best. So as crazy as it is, the BCS probably didn't fare too badly.

However, we could fix all this by pitting USC against Mich. this weekend, pitting LSU / Ok as well. Then the winners play in the Sugar bowl for ultimate bragging rights. But that is probably just another human algorithm that probably doesn't make sense (except maybe to USC fans).